Part 2 :: Beyond Trust: What a Monetary System Is Really Expected to Do
Once I accepted that money is simply a way of measuring and exchanging value, the purpose of a monetary system began to look very different.
A monetary system is not built for money itself. It is built for the economy that uses it. As economies become more complex, the systems supporting them must evolve as well. Looking at history through this lens, the existence of central banks, commercial banks, financial regulations, payment infrastructure, and monetary policy no longer seemed accidental. These institutions emerged alongside economies that were becoming increasingly interconnected and dependent on one another.
Centuries ago, an economic disruption was often local. A poor harvest might affect one village, but its consequences were relatively contained. Today, the situation is entirely different. Modern economies are deeply interconnected networks where businesses, households, financial institutions, governments, and international markets continuously influence one another. A disruption in one sector can quickly spread to many others because every participant depends, directly or indirectly, on someone else.
Bitcoin was designed to solve one of the hardest technological problems in modern history: establishing trust between strangers without requiring a trusted intermediary. Through cryptography and decentralized consensus, it demonstrated that ownership and transactions could be verified without governments or banks maintaining a central ledger. That achievement is extraordinary.
However, the more I thought about it, the more I realized that solving the problem of trust does not automatically solve every problem a monetary system is expected to address.
A monetary system does much more than record ownership and process transactions. It exists within a living economy where millions of people make decisions simultaneously. Businesses decide whether to expand or reduce production. Banks decide whether to extend credit or become more conservative. Investors move capital between industries. Households decide whether to spend, save, or postpone purchases. Every one of these decisions affects countless others, creating an economic network that is constantly adjusting.
This is where I believe the discussion around Bitcoin often becomes incomplete.
One of Bitcoin’s defining characteristics is decentralization. Every participant makes decisions independently, without a central authority directing the system. Under normal conditions, this can be an enormous strength. It removes single points of failure, reduces dependence on trusted intermediaries, and allows the network to operate according to transparent and predictable rules.
But an economy is not simply a collection of independent transactions.
It is a network of interdependent decisions.
Imagine consumer demand begins to decline. A manufacturing company receives fewer orders and reduces production. Its suppliers immediately experience lower demand and postpone expansion plans. Hiring slows. Some businesses reduce their workforce to control costs. Households with lower or uncertain incomes spend less. Retail businesses see declining sales and delay investment. Banks observe increasing uncertainty and tighten lending standards. Businesses that were already struggling now find it even harder to access financing, leading to further reductions in investment, employment, and production.
Every decision in this sequence is individually rational.
No business is acting irresponsibly. No household is behaving irrationally. No bank is deliberately trying to damage the economy. Each participant is simply responding to the information available to them and protecting their own interests.
The problem is that these decisions do not occur in isolation.
They reinforce one another.
What begins as a relatively small slowdown can gradually spread throughout the economy because every participant is connected to many others. Individually rational decisions can collectively create outcomes that no individual intended.
This became one of the most important conclusions I reached. Markets naturally adjust. But adjustment is not the same as coordination.
A decentralized market allows every participant to respond independently. Coordination, however, is about how those independent responses interact across the entire system. In a highly interconnected economy, the absence of coordination can allow localized problems to develop into much larger systemic ones.
This is where my perspective on Bitcoin began to change.
Bitcoin’s decentralized design is exceptionally effective at removing the need for centralized trust when transferring value. I have no disagreement with that. My concern is different. I am not convinced that Bitcoin’s decentralization alone provides a mechanism for coordinating an entire economy when millions of individually rational decisions begin reinforcing one another during periods of severe economic stress.
That does not mean Bitcoin is flawed. Nor does it mean the existing fiat system is perfect. It simply means that solving the problem of trust and solving the problem of economic coordination are not necessarily the same thing.
This distinction also changed how I viewed institutions such as central banks. Their decisions can certainly be criticized, and history provides many examples of policy mistakes, inflation, financial instability, and political influence. Those criticisms are valid. However, criticizing how an institution performs its role is different from concluding that the role itself has no purpose. If modern economies are interconnected networks, then institutions may have evolved not merely to issue money but to coordinate parts of that network when market adjustments alone risk amplifying instability.
Another idea followed naturally from this line of thinking.
Every system has a cost.
Road networks require maintenance. Electricity grids require maintenance. The internet requires maintenance. Monetary systems are no different. The fiat system distributes these costs across banks, payment networks, clearing systems, regulators, and public institutions. Bitcoin removes many of these intermediaries, but it does not eliminate the economic cost of maintaining the network. Instead, it distributes those costs differently.
Today, Bitcoin is secured by miners who invest heavily in specialized hardware, electricity, infrastructure, and operational costs. They receive newly issued bitcoins and transaction fees in return for securing the network. However, Bitcoin’s monetary policy intentionally reduces block rewards over time. Eventually, miners will depend primarily on transaction fees for their compensation.
From an economic perspective, this raises an important long-term consideration.
If maintaining a highly secure global monetary network continues to require substantial investment, while newly issued bitcoins continue to decline, the cost of securing that network must increasingly be recovered elsewhere. In practice, that means miners may eventually require higher transaction-fee revenue to justify continuing to secure the network at the same level.
This is not an argument against Bitcoin.
Every monetary system has ongoing maintenance costs.
The difference is that Bitcoin makes those costs more explicit and distributes them through market incentives rather than centralized institutions. Whether that incentive structure remains economically sustainable over many decades is, in my view, one of the most important questions surrounding Bitcoin’s future.
By this point, I realized I was no longer comparing Bitcoin with the dollar, the euro, or any other fiat currency.
I was comparing two fundamentally different approaches to organizing a monetary system.
One approach places its confidence primarily in transparent rules, decentralization, and market incentives.
The other accepts the existence of institutions that attempt, sometimes successfully, sometimes unsuccessfully to coordinate an increasingly interconnected economy during periods of instability.
Neither approach is perfect. Both involve trade-offs.
But the more I reflected on everything I had learned, the more convinced I became that the public debate has focused on the wrong comparison. The real question is not whether Bitcoin is a better currency than fiat. The real question is whether solving decentralized trust is sufficient to replace every function that a modern monetary system has gradually evolved to perform.
That, more than anything else, is what changed my perspective.
